2025 Private Markets Returns Forecasts

Asset managers regularly release investment outlooks and Capital Market Assumptions (CMAs) to provide forward-looking estimates on returns, risks, and correlations across various asset classes. These projections are vital for portfolio construction and strategic planning, offering a big-picture view of expected market dynamics. While CMAs have traditionally focused on equities and bonds, the growing prominence of alternative investments has led to a surge in CMAs dedicated to private markets—including Private Equity (PE), Venture Capital (VC), Private Debt (PD), Real Estate (RE), and Infrastructure (INFRA).

For illiquid asset classes, CMAs play a crucial role in updating target return estimates. Historical data alone may not adequately capture the impact of changing market conditions, such as shifts in interest rates, inflation expectations, or macroeconomic trends. CMAs bridge this gap by integrating historical performance with forward-looking perspectives, enabling investors to:

• Adjust return assumptions to reflect current market conditions.
• Benchmark expectations across managers and strategies.
• Refine asset allocation based on updated risk-return profiles.

Private markets, characterized by their longer investment horizons and unique risk dynamics, demand even greater precision when aligning investment goals with evolving market realities.

Several leading asset managers publish CMAs tailored specifically for private markets, providing in-depth insights into asset classes such as PE, VC, PD, RE, and INFRA. These estimates are generally compiled by:

• Specialists in private markets, offering a granular focus.
• Multi-asset managers, who incorporate private markets into broader market outlooks.

Some well-known sources for private market CMAs include top firms like Apollo, HarbourVest, Cambridge Associates, and Partners Group, among others. These outlooks can range from detailed return estimates to broader discussions of market trends and risks.

While not all sources provide point estimates for private market returns, many deliver qualitative trends and strategic insights. For 2025, some managers have released specific return estimates, which we’ve compiled into an Excel spreadsheet for easy reference (download the full data at the end of the blog). 

Key Trends and Return Highlights:

These insights highlight the dynamic nature of private markets and underscore the importance of regularly updating investment assumptions.

With these updated CMAs, investors can take actionable steps to position their portfolios for success in 2025 and beyond. Here’s how:

• Update Forecasting Models: Refine pacing and liquidity models using the latest return assumptions. 
• Optimize Portfolio Construction: Reassess allocations to align with updated risk-return profiles across private market asset classes.
• Benchmark GP Guidance: Use CMAs to evaluate the projections and strategies provided by general partners (GPs).

Staying ahead in private markets requires adapting to ever-changing conditions. Leveraging up-to-date CMAs ensures investors are well-prepared to make informed decisions in this evolving landscape.

For a deeper dive into 2025 CMA data, download our compiled CMA Data Spreadsheet, featuring projections from top asset managers like Apollo, KKR, J.P. Morgan, and more.