2026 Capital Market Assumptions for Private Markets

Every January, the institutional investment world enters what might as well be called CMA season.

CIOs, investment committees, and asset allocators revisit long-term return assumptions across asset classes. Asset managers respond in force—publishing annual outlooks, revising expected returns, and reframing the opportunity set for the next decade.

For public markets, this process is well-trodden. For private markets, it’s only just starting to catch up.

What are capital market assumptions in private markets?

Capital market assumptions (CMAs) are long-term estimates of expected returns, volatility, and correlations for different asset classes, used by institutional investors to set strategic asset allocations and build portfolio models. In private markets, CMAs are particularly important — and particularly difficult to produce — because returns are reported with a lag, valuations are smoothed, and performance varies significantly by vintage year and manager. Major asset managers including KKR, BlackRock, J.P. Morgan, and PGIM publish annual private markets CMAs that allocators use to calibrate their return expectations and pacing models.

CMA Season: Outlooks Everywhere, Estimates Less So

By now, nearly every major asset manager publishes a 2026 outlook. These documents typically cover macro views, regime shifts, and portfolio construction themes.

Only a subset, however, go a step further and publish explicit Capital Market Assumptions (CMAs)—point estimates for long-term returns, volatility, and correlations.

That distinction matters.

Outlooks tell a story.

CMAs drive models, pacing plans, and allocation decisions.

Private Markets: Historically Neglected, Rapidly Maturing

For decades, detailed CMAs were largely confined to liquid asset classes—public equity, fixed income, and inflation-linked assets.

Private equity, private credit, infrastructure, and real assets were often:

• Grouped into a single “alternatives” bucket

• Assigned stale, heuristic return assumptions

• Updated infrequently, if at all

That’s changing. A growing number of managers are now publishing private-markets-specific views, either:

• Embedded within broader multi-asset CMAs, or

• As dedicated private markets outlooks

Examples include firms like Aberdeen Investments, BlackRock, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, KKR, and PGIM—each now providing more granular guidance on private market return expectations.

The Problem for Allocators: Information Is Fragmented

While progress is real, it comes with a new challenge.

Private markets CMAs are:

• Scattered across dozens of PDFs

• Inconsistent in structure and terminology

• Hard to compare year-over-year

• Rarely centralized in one place

For allocators running an annual recalibration exercise, this creates unnecessary friction—especially when models still live in Excel.

A Centralized View of 2026 Private Markets CMAs

To make CMA season easier for private markets investors, we’ve compiled a comprehensive Excel resource covering all known 2026 outlooks and CMAs related to private markets.

What You’ll Find in the Download:

1. A complete inventory of private markets outlooks

• Covers both private-markets-focused publications and multi-asset outlooks

• Includes direct links to each original source

• Spans GP-led, multi-asset, and alternatives-specialist perspectives

2. Extracted CMA point estimates from 9 managers

• Only includes firms that publish explicit private markets CMAs

• Standardized return assumptions across asset classes

• Clean, model-ready format

3. Year-over-year comparison vs. 2025

• See how expectations have shifted

• Identify consensus moves and divergences

• Stress-test your own assumptions against the market

Why This Matters Now

Private markets allocations are larger, more complex, and more scrutinized than ever. Relying on outdated or opaque return assumptions is no longer defensible.

CMA season is your annual chance to:

• Re-anchor expectations

• Pressure-test strategic allocations

• Align models with how managers actually see the world

But only if the data is usable.

2026 Private Markets Return Assumptions: Consensus Estimates

To give allocators a concrete starting point, the table below summarises average return assumptions across six private markets asset classes, based on 2026 CMAs published by a cross-section of major institutional asset managers including KKR, BlackRock, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, PGIM, and Aberdeen Investments.

Across all asset classes, consensus return expectations have moved higher versus 2025, with infrastructure and venture capital seeing the largest upward revisions. The full breakdown by individual manager — including firm-level assumptions and methodology notes — is available in the downloadable Excel resource below.

Summary

Based on 2026 capital market assumptions published by major institutional asset managers, consensus return expectations for private markets have moved higher versus 2025 across all asset classes. Private equity buyout and venture capital lead at approximately 10%, followed by private infrastructure at 9.6%, private real estate at 8%, private credit at 7%, and real assets at 6.3%. Infrastructure saw the largest year-over-year revision, up over 2 percentage points. These estimates vary by manager and methodology — the full breakdown across nine managers is available in the downloadable Excel resource. Allocators should use these figures as a calibration reference rather than a precise forecast, and stress-test their models against a range of assumptions.

Download the 2026 Private Markets CMA Resource

👉 Download the full 2026 Private Markets CMA & Outlooks Excel by submitting the form on the left

If you’re recalibrating return assumptions for private equity, private credit, infrastructure, or real assets, this resource will save you hours.

At Tamarix, we spend a lot of time turning fragmented GP disclosures into allocator-ready data. This is one small example of that philosophy—applied to the most important spreadsheet of the year.